MUST READ: 2024 Playoffs: Finals Preview (Mavericks vs Celtics)

Luka is by far the best player heading into the series. There might not be a better scorer in the NBA than him. He's also arguably at the top of the league as a passer who's surrounded by corner 3-point shooters (PJ/Jones/Green) and lob targets (Gafford/Lively). If Boston traps Doncic after he uses a screen, Dallas' centers will have the opportunity to find shooters beyond the arc who can shoot or attack a closeout to bend the defense even more. Conversely, the Celtics can hedge or play drop coverage on the Slovenian which can lead to lobs or crafty mid-range jumpers/floaters by Luka which'll be caused by his manipulation of the defender chasing him after being screened. The Mavs superstar is also a 3-level iso scorer who often looks to demoralize his opposition with step back j's from long range. It gets worse for Boston because Kyrie is essentially the B+ version of Doncic. Irving is going to test the Celtics in a similar way. However, the perimeter defense (Holiday/White/Brown/Tatum) of the east's #1 seed could be the best in the association. And if Porzingis returns by the start of the finals as the all-star level player he is, Boston will have a rim protector who can deter Dallas' duo from scoring in the paint and throwing lobs. The aforementioned Celtic players are also very capable of averaging at least 20 points in a series. Horford is the 6th Celtic who provides notable value on both sides of the ball with his ability to shoot 3's, post up mismatches, and guard post scorers (though that won't matter in this matchup). On the other hand, the Mavericks don't employ any true 2-way players and their stars will have a lot less time to rest on defense compared to the 1st 3 rounds. Anyway, I'm giving a slight edge to Dallas. Since 2022, Boston has been a subpar home playoff team and has a disturbing habit of struggling with much inferior competition in the postseason. Also, they've yet to face a championship contending squad in a series this year while the Mavs have survived way tougher teams in each round. I think this ends in 6 games and I won't be surprised if the Celtics win.

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